Strong La Nina In Place; No Relief In Sight For Florida

Hello everyone! Sorry for the long absence! A cold front passed through the region bringing much welcomed rains through much of Florida. My rain gauge measured a total of 0.85" of precipitation over the storm period. This was the first rain recorded in over a month. This dry streak skipped all of October for most of the area (I recorded a one day mark  of 0.06" in Early October). Approximately 34 days had passed since measurable water could be recorded at Orlando International Airport, falling only a week short of the all-time rainless streak at any given time for our location. The rain sure was welcome, although the roads experienced many accidents due to the slick conditions. I guess we forgot how to drive in the rain (sarcasm).

La Nina is in full force. In case your unaware, La Nina occurs when colder than normal water temperatures are prevalent in the eastern Pacific Ocean, with emphasis on the equatorial waters. This has an affect on the atmospheric circulations and weather patterns. La Nina has various impacts depending on your locale. The Southeast generally experiences warmer temperatures and drier conditions, which can be expected during the winter months. Currently, La Nina is at -1.8 in a scale of +2.7 through -2.1. A La Nina event occurs when there is a deviation of water temperature of -0.5 C. At this point, with La Nina being at -1.8, we can consider this a strong La Nina event. The effects have been felt already in Florida, with higher than normal temperatures and dry conditions, unusual even for the dry season, which starts around Mid-October.

Hurricane season is almost over but does not want to leave without a bang! Tomas caused alot of damage in the Leeward Islands, mostly in St. Lucia, as well as Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica. Tomas reached peak strength in the Caribbean before wind shear, common during the later phases of the hurricane season, weakened Tomas to a Tropical Storm. Tomas has cleared through the Caribbean making a Northeasterly turn and expected to head out to sea, as it gets dragged out by the strong cold front that brought us the rains.

Forecast is dry and sunny for the rest of the week with temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s, climbing back into the low 80s later in the week. Before we get there, we will see temperatures in the 30s in north interior regions of Florida, with low 40s expected in the Orlando metro area. Have a great weekend!

Dry October; Tropics quiet

It seems this year's dry season got off to a early start as the last measurable rain was recorded in October 3. The onset of the official dry season typically occurs during mid-October. Although temperatures have remained in the 80s for most of this period, the low humidity levels have definitely made the feeling of fall felt across the region. The next chance for rain may occur on Wednesday as a frontal zone will increase humidity levels, giving us a possibility for rain. However, it is still unlikely we will witness any significant rainfall, if any, for the foreseeable future, keeping many counties currently reporting rainfall deficits devoid of much needed precipitation.

As for the tropics, it has not been anywhere near as active as I once suspected. We had an extremely active September, but it seems with the shutting down of the Cape Verde season, the high shear environment, and dry air in the Caribbean, has limited many tropical waves from developing. Currently, Invest 99L, located just north of Panama, is expected to encounter a moderate shear environment. If it does develop, models have it continuing its westward progression into the Pacific. At this point, we may see 1 or 2 more storms at most develop until the end of the hurricane season (November 30th).

Current rainfall at my location for the month of October: 0.06 in.
Lowest recorded October rainfall in Orlando: 0.10 in.

We may break that record, but there's still a lot of October left!! ;-)

Heavy Rains a Precursor for the Arrival of TS Nicole

Heavy rains accompanying a stalled out front across Florida led to some big rainfall totals today. Storm totals have most of Central Florida covered with measurable precipitation with local rainfall amounts up to 5 inches in the Cocoa, Eastern and South Central Orange County regions. A Flood watch is now in effect for Osceola and Orange Counties due to the rain that has fallen, and in anticipation for more rains to come through over the nighttime hours.

Copious amounts of rain were also accompanied by strong thunderstorms with frequent CG (cloud-to-ground) lightning, especially here in South Orlando. One of these storms actually triggered a Tornado Warning for portions of Osceola County, although no tornado was confirmed.

Regardless, this is all a precursor for things to come. As Invest 97L has finally gained Tropical Depression status. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted over much of the Southern and Eastern portions of Florida, in anticipation of what will be TS Nicole. Nicole isn't not expected to develop rapidly before making landfall somewhere in South Florida. The main threat from this storm will be isolated tornadoes, torrential rains and flooding. The rains from today, which were somewhat induced by the tropical moisture from TD 16, but mostly from the front, has pre-conditioned the soil/sand for an enhanced flooding event. This storm has shades of TS Fay, which dumped 20-30 inches of rain locally in East Central Florida in 2008. Let us hope it doesn't happen again.

The current pattern favors Florida getting hit by multiple tropical systems as storms develop in the Western Caribbean and re-curve towards Florida. We should be on the lookout for any tropical activity that emanates from this region. Stay safe everyone. Be careful driving out there. Drive slowly to avoid hydroplaning and spinning out. If a road is inundated with water, use that trusty GPS, and find an alternate route. All you need is a foot of moving water to wave good-bye to your car.

Caribbean May Be Hotbed for October Storms

With many Cape Verde storms re-curving out to sea and sparing most of the Eastern Seaboard, with the exception of North Carolina (Earl) and Newfoundland/Nova Scotia (Igor, Earl), focus has shifted to the Caribbean. Historically speaking, the Caribbean has been known to be a favorable region for Tropical Storm development with plenty of TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential).

This October will be no different, as Invest 97L (Nicole?) is developing in the Western Caribbean. Various models (GFS, HWRF, UKMET, etc.) have been calling for development of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean for some time now. The consensus is for 97L to affect regions of South and Eastern FL tomorrow into Wednesday, and shooting up the East Coast providing plenty of rainfall to go with it. The idea is that an approaching cold front will pull Invest 97L to the north and then more eastward. This negates any chance of Invest 97L entering the Central GOM (Gulf of Mexico). At this point, it is hard to predict the path 97L will take and the models will not have a good handle in providing a precise track due to initialization troubles. Poor initialization lends itself to poor results.  High values of shear will also diminish the likelihood of 97L to grow into anything more than a Tropical Storm, even though water temperatures are very favorable. Either way you look at it, 97L will provide rainfall and some gusty winds to Cuba and portions of Southern Florida and Bahamas at the very least within the next 2-3 days.

Atlantic has simmered down... Hermine gaining strength

The last couple of weeks have sure been exciting and nerve-racking. Danielle never really posed a threat to the U.S., but did it ever look beautiful on satellite images. On the other hand, Hurricane Earl, had people up and down the East Coast from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia. Thankfully the storm decided to stay far enough from shore to make landfall, yet its effects were still felt, with tropical storm force winds being felt in portions of East Coast, mainly North Carolina and Massachusetts. Earl would weaken into a strong tropical storm as it slammed into Nova Scotia.

After Earl, the other storms have not done too well. Fiona and Gaston had formed while Earl was knocking on our door. Fiona would be lifted north and weaken as it was sheared apart, in part by Hurricane Earl. T.S. Gaston showed great promise but ran into a region of dry air, being downgraded back to a tropical wave. Gaston could still re-develop, and is expected too as it heads towards the Caribbean. This storm will need to bare watching in the coming week.

Many storms have been coming via Africa, also known as Cape Verde storms. So, naturally, with the wave train of low pressure systems rolling off the continent continuously, our focus as been on these storms. But, all of a sudden, Hermine has developed in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Hermine has developed into a TC, and could possibly strengthen to hurricane status before all is said and done. Landfall is expected later today in the Texas/Mexico border, as it picks up its forward velocity. The only factor in whether Hermine will be a hurricane or not, is the time spent in the waters before landfall. Hurricane watches have been posted in Southern Texas, with the possibility of Hermine becoming a Category 1 storm.

Earl poses threat to U.S.

As Hurricane Earl batters portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, it has intensified significantly to a Category 4 storm, making it the strongest hurricane this year to date. It has sustained winds of 135 mph and possible strengthening is possible as Earl passes over 30 deg C waters! The depth of the warm pool in these waters are enough to possibly catapult Earl into Category 5 status!

The track of Earl is expected to flirt with the U.S. East Coast, taking it very close to North Carolina and possibly New England region. It is still unknown for sure, but all models are in agreement that Earl will start to move northwest and then take a more northerly path. Earl is expected to keep its major hurricane status as it skirts by North Carolina. People located along the coast of North Carolina and Massachusetts should keep their eyes on this storm.

Tropics Heating Up

This hurricane season has been unusually quiet compared to its lofty expectations of it being a very active hurricane season. Not to long ago, only 3 named storms had formed as we approached the peak hurricane period (starting mid-August). All of a sudden, 2 storms of interest, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl have formed from tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa (also known as Cape Verde storms). Hurricane Danielle was not of extreme importance, as it was suspected, that danielle would curve out to sea. Now some of the hurricane models have Danielle curving back towards the U.S. and possibly impacting the Northeast. This storm bares watching and all those in the Northeast should be on the lookout towards the beginning of September for this storm should it head that way.

As for Tropical Storm Earl, it seems the storm will undergo slow strengthening. The models have Earl following Danielle and possibly sharing the same possible fate by re-curving out towards sea and be a threat only to shipping interests. This storm still bares observation throughout the following days.




There is also another impressive wave coming off the African coast that could very well be an Area of Interest (AOI) in the coming days. This hurricane season sure has exploded in the last week and the rest of the season is sure to be one heck of a ride. Let's hope the U.S. is spared of any direct impacts from these storms as this hurricane season finally reaches expectations.

Welcome!!

Hey guys! My name is Javier and I hope this will be the beginning of a great blog where we can talk about everything pertaining to weather. My hope is to talk of current weather stories, any interesting articles in the advancement of meteorology, papers of interest, etc. I love to take weather photos so I will post so of my pictures on here as well. I am very passionate about weather and the sharing of knowledge to those who are not familiar with meteorological processes and phenomena. If any of you guys have questions feel free to shoot me an e-mail and I'll get back to you as soon as possible.