Caribbean May Be Hotbed for October Storms

With many Cape Verde storms re-curving out to sea and sparing most of the Eastern Seaboard, with the exception of North Carolina (Earl) and Newfoundland/Nova Scotia (Igor, Earl), focus has shifted to the Caribbean. Historically speaking, the Caribbean has been known to be a favorable region for Tropical Storm development with plenty of TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential).

This October will be no different, as Invest 97L (Nicole?) is developing in the Western Caribbean. Various models (GFS, HWRF, UKMET, etc.) have been calling for development of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean for some time now. The consensus is for 97L to affect regions of South and Eastern FL tomorrow into Wednesday, and shooting up the East Coast providing plenty of rainfall to go with it. The idea is that an approaching cold front will pull Invest 97L to the north and then more eastward. This negates any chance of Invest 97L entering the Central GOM (Gulf of Mexico). At this point, it is hard to predict the path 97L will take and the models will not have a good handle in providing a precise track due to initialization troubles. Poor initialization lends itself to poor results.  High values of shear will also diminish the likelihood of 97L to grow into anything more than a Tropical Storm, even though water temperatures are very favorable. Either way you look at it, 97L will provide rainfall and some gusty winds to Cuba and portions of Southern Florida and Bahamas at the very least within the next 2-3 days.