Heavy Rains a Precursor for the Arrival of TS Nicole

Heavy rains accompanying a stalled out front across Florida led to some big rainfall totals today. Storm totals have most of Central Florida covered with measurable precipitation with local rainfall amounts up to 5 inches in the Cocoa, Eastern and South Central Orange County regions. A Flood watch is now in effect for Osceola and Orange Counties due to the rain that has fallen, and in anticipation for more rains to come through over the nighttime hours.

Copious amounts of rain were also accompanied by strong thunderstorms with frequent CG (cloud-to-ground) lightning, especially here in South Orlando. One of these storms actually triggered a Tornado Warning for portions of Osceola County, although no tornado was confirmed.

Regardless, this is all a precursor for things to come. As Invest 97L has finally gained Tropical Depression status. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted over much of the Southern and Eastern portions of Florida, in anticipation of what will be TS Nicole. Nicole isn't not expected to develop rapidly before making landfall somewhere in South Florida. The main threat from this storm will be isolated tornadoes, torrential rains and flooding. The rains from today, which were somewhat induced by the tropical moisture from TD 16, but mostly from the front, has pre-conditioned the soil/sand for an enhanced flooding event. This storm has shades of TS Fay, which dumped 20-30 inches of rain locally in East Central Florida in 2008. Let us hope it doesn't happen again.

The current pattern favors Florida getting hit by multiple tropical systems as storms develop in the Western Caribbean and re-curve towards Florida. We should be on the lookout for any tropical activity that emanates from this region. Stay safe everyone. Be careful driving out there. Drive slowly to avoid hydroplaning and spinning out. If a road is inundated with water, use that trusty GPS, and find an alternate route. All you need is a foot of moving water to wave good-bye to your car.

Caribbean May Be Hotbed for October Storms

With many Cape Verde storms re-curving out to sea and sparing most of the Eastern Seaboard, with the exception of North Carolina (Earl) and Newfoundland/Nova Scotia (Igor, Earl), focus has shifted to the Caribbean. Historically speaking, the Caribbean has been known to be a favorable region for Tropical Storm development with plenty of TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential).

This October will be no different, as Invest 97L (Nicole?) is developing in the Western Caribbean. Various models (GFS, HWRF, UKMET, etc.) have been calling for development of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean for some time now. The consensus is for 97L to affect regions of South and Eastern FL tomorrow into Wednesday, and shooting up the East Coast providing plenty of rainfall to go with it. The idea is that an approaching cold front will pull Invest 97L to the north and then more eastward. This negates any chance of Invest 97L entering the Central GOM (Gulf of Mexico). At this point, it is hard to predict the path 97L will take and the models will not have a good handle in providing a precise track due to initialization troubles. Poor initialization lends itself to poor results.  High values of shear will also diminish the likelihood of 97L to grow into anything more than a Tropical Storm, even though water temperatures are very favorable. Either way you look at it, 97L will provide rainfall and some gusty winds to Cuba and portions of Southern Florida and Bahamas at the very least within the next 2-3 days.

Atlantic has simmered down... Hermine gaining strength

The last couple of weeks have sure been exciting and nerve-racking. Danielle never really posed a threat to the U.S., but did it ever look beautiful on satellite images. On the other hand, Hurricane Earl, had people up and down the East Coast from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia. Thankfully the storm decided to stay far enough from shore to make landfall, yet its effects were still felt, with tropical storm force winds being felt in portions of East Coast, mainly North Carolina and Massachusetts. Earl would weaken into a strong tropical storm as it slammed into Nova Scotia.

After Earl, the other storms have not done too well. Fiona and Gaston had formed while Earl was knocking on our door. Fiona would be lifted north and weaken as it was sheared apart, in part by Hurricane Earl. T.S. Gaston showed great promise but ran into a region of dry air, being downgraded back to a tropical wave. Gaston could still re-develop, and is expected too as it heads towards the Caribbean. This storm will need to bare watching in the coming week.

Many storms have been coming via Africa, also known as Cape Verde storms. So, naturally, with the wave train of low pressure systems rolling off the continent continuously, our focus as been on these storms. But, all of a sudden, Hermine has developed in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Hermine has developed into a TC, and could possibly strengthen to hurricane status before all is said and done. Landfall is expected later today in the Texas/Mexico border, as it picks up its forward velocity. The only factor in whether Hermine will be a hurricane or not, is the time spent in the waters before landfall. Hurricane watches have been posted in Southern Texas, with the possibility of Hermine becoming a Category 1 storm.